Chaz Forsyth was born in NZ in 1948 and is married with two children, one of them still at school. Most of his working life has been spent in and around Dunedin, where he was educated.
After a twenty year career as a civil engineering technician specialising in traffic engineering he retrained as a technology teacher (Secondary teaching). He has taught at an intermediate school in Dunedin since then but has spent this year as a full-time university student, pursuing a degree in economics.
Chaz' interest in recreational hunting began while he was still at school and developed into ammunition reloading, firearm safety instruction and gunsmithing. He has had more than 60 articles on aspects of firearms, cartridges and hunting published in NZ and overseas. His Firearms in New Zealand was published twice, the second time by the NZ Mountain Safety Council as its Manual No.37 (in 1985).
Casualties From Firearm Accidents: Trends Since 1935:
This paper examines trends in firearm accident (unintentional) casualty data provided by NZ Police and NZ Mountain Safety Council (Inc) from 1935 to 2004. (See footnote 1) Firearm accidents have steadily declined, with notable reductions in the early 1950s, the early 1970s and the late 1990s. Whilst Scott and Scott (2005) estimates that this fall in total number of firearms accidents reduced annual societal cost by 253%, they recommend that significant spending is justified to further reduce firearm accidents even further. The analysis falls into two parts.
The first discusses the multitude of factors that may have lead to changes in the casualty rate from firearm accidents such as: volume of firearms, proportion of the firearm-owning population, proportion of 'high risk' population, greater awareness of the need for firearm safety, wider knowledge of first aid, improved firearm owner licensing provisions, inter alia.
While information about the firearm 'pool' of yesteryear is lacking, recent information shows some 1.1 million firearms in NZ, of which 43% are rifles, 29% are shotguns, 25% are airguns and 3% are handguns. The proportion of firearms per capita has steadily increased from 0.236 to 0.311, because of firearm imports exceeding the population growth rate.(See footnote 2)
The age distribution of arms accident casualties has changed slightly, with the age for accumulated 50 percentile casualties increasing from 25 years (1930 to 1966 and early 1980s data) to 30 years (1987 to 2004).
Steady improvements in firearm safety, arising from training programmes particularly those instigated since the inception of the NZMSC (Inc) in 1965, and arms owner licensing requirements dwelling upon user suitability (since 1984) culminating in the improvements effected by the Arms Amendment Act (1992) have lead directly to reductions in arms accidents among law abiding users of legal firearms.
The second part will conduct formal time series analysis to examine the linkages between the economic, educational and institutional factors listed above. This will greatly extend on the conjectures put forth in Scott and Scott (2005) and the noted correlations between access to guns and risk of death by in the US by Rushforth (1974) and Canada by Chapdelaine and Maurice (1996).
Clayton is a PhD candidate in the Department of Economics at Otago University where he also teaches econometrics. His thesis is in the area of development economics. He has research interests in a number of other areas of economics including economic analysis of sports, and decision-making processes in tertiary education and immigration. Before starting his doctorate he worked as an education policy analyst for the NZ Treasury. Clayton plays a variety of sports and instructs aerobics when he is not studying.
References:
Chapdelaine, A. and Maurice, P., Firearms injury prevention and gun control in Canada. Canadian Medical Association Journal,1996. 155(9): p. 1285-9. Rushforth, N.B., et al., Accidental firearm fatalities in a metropolitan county (1958-1973). Am J Epidemiol, 1974. 100(6): p. 499-505. Scott, W.G., and Scott, H.M., Firearm accidents: trends and costs in New Zealand. Unpub, (2005).