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 %#CModelling Accidental Firearms Casualties in New Zealand: 1960-2004  D7( (*Clayton R. Weatherston and Charles Forsyth  Motivation  Substantial social cost of firearms casualties (Scott and Scott, 2005) Apply multivariate time series methods to New Zealand data Substantial empirical literature in the United States on effects of gun laws: compare and contrast   Empirical Regularity #1: Accidental firearms casualties have declined over the period 1960-2004  Statistically significant changes to the downward trend (in deaths) could not be proven for any one factor , Scott and Scott (2005) Empirical Regularity #2: Negative pair wise correlation between stock of firearms and accidental firearms casualty rates negative over the period 1960-2004 Can this be explained by other factors? Changes in individuals behaviour Legislation Characteristics of owners `PHPPH(`    #Accidental Casualty Rates 1935-2004$$ #  Chronology  wArms Act 1920 Arms Act 1958 NZMSC formed 1965 Arms Act 1983 Arms Act 1992 1993: Compulsory Breath testing for motoristsw 0Model of Accidental Firearms Casualty Rates (#1)11 0  (1) Sample period 1960-2004 Natural logs of accidental casualties per head of population, GDP, % total population male and aged between 10 and 25, and firearms stock Dummy variables for Arms Act(s) F .   ,Econometric Issues& & ..$ TQuestion: Are the common trends in the data spurious? Answer: Maybe, need to check Need to consider time series properties of the variables - ie: test for stationarity Generalised Least Squares version of the Dickey Fuller Unit Root test (Elliot et al. 1996). Regressors are I(0), I(1) and I(2) Cointegration cannot be ruled out apriorizUZZMZ .F      H          Testing for Cointegration("    :Many options but test via Error Correction Framework (2) where:  is a constant, X' = [ ] and  < 0. Conclusion: Equation (1) is an equilibrium relationship ie: there is a tendency to return to that  state 5Z{Z9Z5ZO"E "  cnG W<  0  0Model of Accidental Firearms Casualty Rates (#2)11 0  (3) Sample period 1960-2004 Natural log of beer consumption per head of population Cointegrating relationship found also F {z._     Empirical Results (#1)(  Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob Constant 7.262 3.698 1.964 0.057 LSTOCKPP -2.723 0.673 -4.048 0.001 LRGDPPP 2.763 1.293 2.137 0.039 Log%Males1025 1.052 0.422 2.495 0.017 ArmsAct1983 -0.487 0.159 -3.074 0.004 D1993 -0.295 0.161 -1.838 0.074 Over 90% of the variation in casualty rates is explained by the model Coefficients measure the % changes in casualty rates to % changes in each variable. ie: casualty rates fell by 48.7% following the Arms Act 1983E8 13 * /:Z)  f    MFigure 2: Estimated adjustment path of casualty rates following Arms Act 1983 N  E Empirical Results (#2)(  Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob Constant 3.541 3.870 0.915 0.366 LSTOCKPP -3.093 0.714 -4.331 0.000 LRGDPPP 3.096 1.368 2.263 0.029 Log%Males1025 1.030 0.440 2.342 0.024 ArmsAct1983 -0.391 0.163 -2.403 0.021 LBeer 0.876 0.503 1.742 0.089ZC 524 * /;>'  %;Preliminary Conclusions( Casualty rates per head of population are: positively related to GDP, the percentage of males aged between 10 and 25, and beer consumption per head; negatively related to the firearms stock (so we need more information in the model to account for this); have significantly fallen following the Arms Act 1983 have significantly fallen following implementation of the Arms Act Amendment 1992  Large elasticity's on GDP and stock reflect complex linkages and a need for more specific data v+[a+ORa`  ,Taking this further& .. 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Modelling Accidental Firearms Casualties in New Zealand AdministratorngElizabeth Davie42zMicrosoft Office PowerPoint@F|o@%W.@Z03,G6g  4  -- @ !--'@Arial-. 42 Modelling Accidental Firearms . %  " /."Systemti-@Arial-. -2 ,Casualties in New Zealanda(   ((" .-@Arial-.  2 ,6: .-@Arial-.  2 on1960.-@Arial-.  2 o-.-@Arial-.  2 o2004.-@Arial-. 2  Clayton R.   .-@Arial-. 2  Weatherston,  .-@Arial-.  2 and  .-@Arial-. 2 XCharles Forsyth    .-՜.+,0      On-screen ShowUniversity of Otagoe{ Arial WingdingsDefault DesignMicrosoft Equation 3.0Microsoft Office Excel ChartDModelling Accidental Firearms Casualties in New Zealand: 1960-2004 MotivationSlide 3$Accidental Casualty Rates 1935-2004 Chronology1Model of Accidental Firearms Casualty Rates (#1)Econometric Issues..Testing for Cointegration1Model of Accidental Firearms Casualty Rates (#2)Empirical Results (#1)NFigure 2: Estimated adjustment path of casualty rates following Arms Act 1983Empirical Results (#2)Preliminary ConclusionsTaking this further..  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